Many people could think that weather phenomena that originate on the other side of the planet will not affect our daily lives, but the way the next El Niño is being portrayed by the internet and social media could raise a few eyebrows. Experts and journalists alike have proclaimed the upcoming El Niño as a 'super' event – or even sensationalised it to 'godzilla' level event.
Spanish for boy, El Niño is a weather event that takes place every two to seven years and lasts around nine to twelve months. Normally, during ENSO-neutral conditions (the absence of El Niño), trade winds move westward along the equator, pushing warm surface water from South America toward Asia. As that water shifts, colder water from deeper layers rises to the surface to take its place – a process known as 'upwelling'.
During an El Niño event those trade winds weaken – or even reverse – and the warm water meant to head towards Asia now scatters more evenly across the Pacific. In turn, this causes wetter weather across the equitorial Pacific, which affects the winds, subsequently impacting global temperature and weather.
Its impacts vary worldwide: regions such as Peru often face increased flooding, while Indonesia, India, and parts of Brazil may experience drought. Regardless of location, El Niño can influence global conditions, as the excess heat stored at the Pacific's surface releases energy into the atmosphere, contributing to rising global temperatures.
It's opposing phase is called La Niña, where trade winds are stronger than usual bringing cold water to the surface and causing colder temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific.
Upon questioning, meteorologist Luca Mathias from Meteolux was quick to emphasise that the term 'super El Niño' is "not an official WMO [World Meteorological Organisation] category". He did, however, outline why the term is being used for the 2026 event: subsurface heat levels in the western Pacific are unusually elevated, and a sequence of strong westerly wind bursts during the spring has driven warm water eastward in a way typically associated with particularly intense events.
This sentiment was solidified by the British head of long range prediction at the Met Office on a weather podcast: "The forecast from now is warming faster in the tropical pacific than at any other time so far this century. So something is going on."
Furthermore, Mathias explained that El Niño events are typically classified based on the extent to which sea-surface temperatures in the central-eastern tropical Pacific exceed normal levels.
Weak events are defined by increases of about +0.5 to +1.0°C above the long-term average, while strong events surpass +1.5°C. The informal label "super" is used when temperature anomalies rise above +2.0°C and persist for several months with "the seasonal ensemble model forecast for October currently ranging from approximately +1.5 °C to +3 °C".
Asked whether Luxembourg is likely to feel the effects, Mathias pointed out that the country lies well outside El Niño's main impact zones, such as the Americas, East Asia, and Australia. Any influence here is indirect, transmitted through a chain of atmospheric "teleconnections" in which tropical warming shifts the North Pacific jet stream, ultimately altering Atlantic circulation and pressure patterns over Europe.
He cautioned that this mechanism is both complex and poorly constrained. Drawing on 78 years of observations from Findel, covering ten El Niño episodes, he noted that the clearest signal for Luxembourg appears in the autumn of the developing year, when conditions tend to be wetter than average, typically by around 25–30%. By contrast, the winter response – often the focus of media attention – remains inconsistent.
While the most recent so-called 'super' events brought notably mild winters, earlier episodes ranged from near-normal to distinctly colder conditions, showing the lack of a reliable pattern. One robust outcome, however, is that El Niño contributes to higher global average temperatures.
Looking back at previous strong events reinforces that uncertainty. The 1997–98 El Niño, often cited as a benchmark, produced no exceptional anomalies locally: the summer of 1997 was somewhat wetter than normal, while the following winter was only modestly milder. The 1982–83 event saw a markedly wet autumn but an otherwise unremarkable winter, whereas 1972–73 delivered a notably cold and dry season.
Taken together, these cases illustrate that strong El Niño episodes have not left a consistent or predictable imprint on Luxembourg's climate. According to Mathias, year-to-year variability outweighs any systematic signal, making it difficult to draw firm expectations for local conditions.
Looking ahead, Mathias points to two key milestones that should bring greater clarity. The first comes between late May and early June 2026, when what forecasters call the "spring predictability barrier" typically breaks down. As noted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, this is the point at which ocean–atmosphere coupling strengthens, allowing models to better resolve how intense the event is likely to become – whether moderate, strong, or informally 'super'.
The second moment arrives in autumn. Even once El Niño is firmly established, its impact on Europe depends on how atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic evolves, something that cannot be pinned down months in advance. By September or October, seasonal models should offer a clearer – though still probabilistic – indication of what winter 2026–27 might hold.
Until then, the message from scientists remains consistent: while global signals are becoming clearer, the local outcome for places like Luxembourg is far less certain than the headlines suggest. However, what is certain is that amid the current state of the climate, such phenomena will be impactful, which the WMO underlined as follows: "increasing global temperatures in the long-term, exacerbate extreme weather and climate events, and impact seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns".
