After a decade at the helm of the United Nations, António Guterres will step down as secretary-general at the end of this year.
Having led the UN Secretariat in New York since 1 January 2017, the former Portuguese prime minister, was the "chief administrative officer" to the UN, among others coordinating response to global emergencies and mediating conflict.
There's an informal norm, in which the UN follows a geographic rotation principle when appointing its chief. While it's not a rule, after ten years with a Western European at the helm, it is now widely expected that the next secretary-general could come from Latin America or Africa.
Earlier this year, all member states were invited to propose candidates, with an explicit encouragement to nominate women. Despite the UN’s long history, there has never been a female secretary-general.
If the rumours are to be believed, there is a trend pointing to two women with particularly good chances.
One is Rebeca Grynspan Mayufis, an economist and former vice-president of Costa Rica, who currently heads the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
The other name widely talked about is Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, former foreign minister of Guyana and currently the country's ambassador to the United Nations in New York.
Other names in the running include Rafael Mariano Grossi of Argentina, who currently serves as General Director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna.
Michelle Bachelet Jeria, the former Chilean president, is also considered a strong candidate, backed by Mexico and Brazil, although Chile withdrew its support following a change of government.
María Fernanda Espinosa Garcés, an Ecuadorian politician, has also entered the race.
There are also two African candidates: former Senegalese president Macky Sall, nominated by Burundi rather than his own country, and Olara Otunnu of Uganda, a former UN Under-secretary-general.
The United Nations Security Council plays the central role in the selection process. As is often the case, a candidate must enjoy the favour of the Council’s five permanent members: the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, China, and France.
The Security Council conducts a series of anonymous straw polls on the candidates, a process that began in July and is set to continue into the autumn. The aim is to reach consensus on a single nominee, who is then recommended to the UN General Assembly for approval.
The General Assembly confirms the choice by simple majority; up to now, it has never rejected a Security Council recommendation, though this would theoretically be possible. Early behind-the-scenes results indicate that Rebeca Grynspan Mayufis and Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett are currently leading.
Gianni Infantino’s name has recently surfaced in American media, with reports that US President Donald Trump described him as "respected" candidate.
However, Trump’s backing is unlikely to carry much weight: Infantino is European, not a woman, and lacks diplomatic experience, all of which make his chances of securing broad support in the Security Council slim.
Voting in the Security Council is expected to continue through autumn, with the General Assembly likely to make its decision in late autumn or early winter. Whoever is chosen, the task ahead will be anything but easy.
In a period marked by growing global fragmentation and challenges to multilateralism, institutions like the United Nations are under mounting pressure to remain relevant. With so many global crises unresolved, effective leadership at the UN is more important than ever.
The secretary-general is the highest administrative official in the United Nations. As head of the Secretariat, they oversee the organisation’s various bodies and have the right to put topics on the Security Council’s agenda.
The secretary-general’s responsibilities also include acting with political neutrality, representing the organisation on the international stage, and upholding the principles of the UN. The term lasts five years and, by tradition, is limited to two terms.
