Blockades, counter-blockades, contradictory reports, and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have caused oil prices to rise sharply over the past two months.
Iran is blocking free passage through the Strait of Hormuz for ships belonging to allies of the United States and Israel, and plans to charge for all future transit. The US, meanwhile, is blocking Iranian ports. Around 20% of global oil traffic is currently affected.
The consequences of Washington's erratic foreign policy were foreseeable. No one benefits from the situation, least of all the US itself, but the White House appears reluctant to acknowledge that it had no clear plan and little prospect of success.
Alexis Ellender of Kpler Maritime Data, a company that gathers information on international maritime trade, said the situation remains far from a return to normal trade in the Strait of Hormuz. He explained that the greatest damage had been caused by the impression that the route was reopening, only for it to remain fully blocked.
As a result, shipping companies are expected to be extremely cautious before sending large numbers of vessels back to the region to load oil or fertiliser, he said.
The slow pace of negotiations is not helping. Pakistan is mediating talks in Islamabad in an attempt to find a solution. For Tehran, any compromise is a red line. For Washington, the risk is losing face.
According to Ellender, a formal ceasefire would change a great deal. He explained that transit could perhaps recover to around 25% of normal traffic in the first month, with major companies likely to be the first to resume loading oil, and possibly some dry cargo as well.
If there are no further developments, he said, other operators are expected to wait another month and a half or so before returning.
Ellender explained further that traffic could then gradually increase to around 30%, and later 50%, of normal levels. Container ships and liquefied natural gas vessels could also begin returning, but only if there are no further incidents or attacks, he said.
The 28 February attack on Iran, with all its economic consequences, has proved to be a spectacular own goal.
Ellender warned that conditions are unlikely to return to what they were before the war. He said that insurance costs for ships travelling to the region are expected to rise, and high premiums for transit are likely.
He compared the situation to the Black Sea, where elevated insurance costs have become a long-term reality, adding that similar conditions could remain in place for years.
In the end, the attack on Iran achieved nothing. The only result has been economic damage, including for uninvolved third countries. Until 28 February, the Strait of Hormuz was open to navigation, and passage through it was simple, straightforward and, above all, free.
