Statec expects an inflation rate of 1.7% for 2021, it concludes in a recent report.
But February will be quite the opposite and see a drop in inflation, assures Cathy Schmit, statistician at Statec. The national statistics institute speaks of fluctuating inflation during the first two months but expects levels to stabilise for the remainder of the year.
Statec forecasts an inflation rate of 1.7% in mid-February for 2021. The price of fuels and other petroleum derivatives, which will continue to rise (but remain below their pre-pandemic level), the general economic recovery and a "new index tranche in 2022" would bring inflation to 1.8% for 2022.
Given the pandemic and its still possible rebounds, forecasters cannot precisely define when the index will move upwards again. In its inflation forecasts on Wednesday, Statec indicates that "according to the different scenarios" of the evolution of the price of a barrel of oil, "the next index bracket would fall between the 1st and the 3rd quarter of 2022".
