The latest "Sonndesfro" poll, conducted by ILRES on behalf of RTL and Luxemburger Wort, indicates that if elections were held this Sunday, the current CSV-DP coalition would no longer hold a majority in the Chamber of Deputies – even though the Democratic Party (DP) would increase its vote share. The results have prompted a range of reactions across the political spectrum.
Marc Baum, an MP for the Left Party (Déi Lénk), said the poll results show that "the CSV really took a beating." He noted that the Christian Social People's Party's loss of 8% in vote share is cataclysmic by Luxembourgish standards.
In Baum's view, the results amount to a rejection of current government policies, which he said were meant to carry the imprint of "CEO Luc Frieden." Baum added that previous polls had already indicated a downward trend, and that what is now needed is "a complete change of government policy." He therefore agreed with trade unions that, ahead of upcoming tripartite talks, have described this as the "final chance" for the current government.
Baum also highlighted that while the CSV lost 8%, the three left and centre-left parties – the Left Party, the Green Party (Déi Gréng), and the Luxembourg Socialist Workers' Party (LSAP) – gained a combined 6%. In his view, this signals a demand for a different policy approach, specifically a more social policy aimed at reducing the gap between rich and poor.
If an election were held tomorrow, the Alternative Democratic Reform Party (ADR) would gain 1.8%, translating into two additional seats. Party president Alexandra Schoos expressed satisfaction with the result.
Schoos attributed the party's gains partly to its renewed representation in the Eastern constituency, which has raised its profile. She also pointed to the party's policy efforts, including on pension reform, tax reform, and the minimum wage. "I think we have our finger on the pulse of the people and understand what's going on," Schoos said.
Schoos attributed the CSV's poor result to weak communication and the reality that, in a coalition, parties cannot implement 100% of their desired agenda. Nevertheless, she cautioned that such polls are merely snapshots. The real test, in Schoos' view, will be the next legislative elections in October 2028.
DP party president Carole Hartmann also stressed that polls are merely snapshots. While they should be taken seriously, she said, the 2028 elections are what ultimately matter. Regarding the CSV's poor result, Hartmann said it would be up to that party to conduct its own analysis. She acknowledged that the DP is pleased with its own result and the hypothetical gain of one seat, but added that the current focus is on looking ahead.
Hartmann emphasised the importance of considering both the current situation in Luxembourg and developments abroad. She stated that the government must deliver answers on various issues, including the war in Iran and its associated consequences. In this context, Hartmann underlined the significance of the upcoming tripartite talks.
She said that in any case, the DP has achieved a solid result in the polls, which should serve as motivation to continue implementing the policies voters supported – together with its coalition partner.
If elections were held on Sunday, the Green Party would gain two seats. Co-party president François Benoy said the party is pleased that voters are expressing support for its work in opposition. At the same time, according to Benoy, the message to the CSV is clear.
Specifically, Benoy believes voters disapprove of the way the CSV is implementing measures that go against the interests of the public and without involving them in the process. "I think the CSV and the entire government would do well to fundamentally reconsider their policy," Benoy said.
He noted that while the DP may be doing a better job tactically, it is in essence pursuing the same policies as the CSV. Benoy also highlighted that housing remains the number one issue among voters in Luxembourg. He criticised DP housing minister Claude Meisch, saying that Meisch is clearly not investing enough nor implementing the required measures. Even when he does, Benoy added, he is being tripped up by Luxembourg City mayor Lydie Polfer.
For the Pirate Party, the poll brings unwelcome news. The opposition party would lose one seat – namely, the seat held by party founder Sven Clement in the central constituency.
Party coordinator Ben Lomel said he is "not surprised" by the results, particularly following the controversies surrounding the publication of the report by the Court of Auditors. However, he stressed that the party also sees a positive side, as the poll indicates a need to continue working on itself. Lomel stated that the party will keep doing so, both in the Chamber of Deputies and at the local level.
Regarding Clement's seat, Lomel called for a more nuanced view, pointing out that seat distributions in such polls are always calculated without considering which candidates campaign in which constituencies. Lomel said he is not too worried for the moment, and that the focus now is on turning the overall tide for the party.
Clement himself commented that the party should concentrate on issues important to voters, which in his view are the cost of living, housing, and mobility.
Georges Engel expressed satisfaction with the latest poll. The LSAP would gain three seats, which for Engel is "a clear sign" that the party is not doing everything completely wrong. He added that the government is not in a strong position because quite a few wrong decisions have been made.
"You cannot be satisfied with that result – neither as secretary general nor as an MP of the majority," said CSV secretary general Alex Donnersbach. However, the MP does not attribute any blame to Luc Frieden, noting that Frieden was elected party president with 90% of the vote at the last congress. Donnersbach acknowledged that mistakes are sometimes made: "I think we as the CSV have certainly not done everything right, but I believe we have initiated a number of reforms and important measures during our time in government."
